None of us like the side effects of getting older. But apparently after a certain age, those effects plateau. Some scientists have theorized that once you reach your 105th birthday, you essentially stop aging!
Demographers—scientists who study human demographics—have long suspected that humans have a “mortality plateau.” As we age, our chance of dying within a year’s time increases. In fact, as you progress through your 60s and 70s, that chance doubles roughly every eight years.
In lab animals, however, scientists see what they call a mortality plateau—a point at which the risk of dying seems to level off instead of steadily increasing.
The problem with searching for such a plateau in humans is that we simply don’t have enough data on people who live to be over a hundred years old. At least until now! A demographer named Elisabetta Barbi based in Rome lead a study that analyzed information on every person in Italy who lived to be at least 105 between 2009 and 2015.
Surprisingly, there were almost 4000 Italians who made it past the age of 105, and the Italian National Institute of Statistics had compiled a wealth of information for Barbi and her colleagues to examine. What they found was remarkable.
Barbi along with co-author Kenneth Wachter of UC Berkeley believe that humans do indeed reach an age where aging essentially stops. 105 seems to be long-sought human mortality plateau. After that point, a person’s chances of making it to their next birthday remain essentially unchanged. Considering that the oldest person ever on record lived to be 122, there are intriguing possibilities for the future of longevity.
There is “strong evidence that if there is a maximum limit to human lifespan, we are not close to it yet,” Wachter says. During their research, Barbi and Wachter found that not only does aging level off at 105, but more and more people are reaching that incredible milestone.
Thanks to a variety of factors, including modern healthcare and nutrition, we’re able to live longer and healthier lives. Could we someday expect to live well into our second century?
Rival demographers Joop de Beer of the Netherlands, along with Leonid Gavrilov from the University of Chicago, have expressed their concerns about the research. “This paper will not settle the debate, but will ignite it further,” Gavrilov said.
It’s clear that a larger study beyond just Italy is needed. The good news is that modern record-keeping is more reliable than ever. These records will provide cleaner, less ambiguous data for future researchers to examine. In the meantime, check out the wisdom that real-life supercentenarians have to offer!
